MARKET UPDATE - $100 Oil: Why We Are Not Worried
Quick note: As you read this, keep in mind that this is a rapidly evolving situation, and making any sort of macro predictions in this environment is very complicated. We will keep you updated if and when our opinion changes.
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Oil prices have spiked back to around $100 per barrel for the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Over the six-month period between July 2025 and early January 2026, the West Texas Intermediate price of oil steadily trended down amid geopolitical stability and strong US production volumes.
But starting in January, WTI crude oil prices began rebounding amid a US naval military buildup off the coast of Iran, and the chances of a military intervention began to rise.
Some investors have begun to fear that this oil price shock is akin to others experienced prior to recessions.
The recessions in the early 1990s, early 2000s, and 2008-2009 all coincided with or followed shortly after significant increases in the price of oil.
And some have pointed out that the stock market is trading ominously similar to how it did from the summer of 2007 through the summer of 2008, just prior to the beginning of the Great Financial Crisis.
While sector performance this year might not be perfectly aligned with pre-GFC performance, it is at least directionally similar.
So are we at High Yield Landlord battening down the hatches and preparing for the apocalypse?
In short: No.
We think the US will most likely avoid a recession, the price of oil will decline over the balance of this year, and there will be minimal impact on the CPI.
Let’s explain why.
