TRADE ALERT - Core Portfolio May 2026
Vail Resorts (MTN) just released a disappointing update, and the market did not like it:
Season-to-date skier visits are down 14.9%.
Lift revenue is down 5.6%.
Ski school revenue is down 12.0%.
Dining revenue is down 11.7%.
Retail and rental revenue is down 6.6%.
Management also said that this was one of the most challenging winters in history across the western US, with record low snowfall, historically warm temperatures, a 25% drop in visitation in the Rockies, and Resort Reported EBITDA now expected to come in at or around the low end of the prior guidance range.
None of that is positive.
And yet, we are buying the dip.
We just bought another 30 shares of Vail Resorts, increasing our position by 15%, because we continue to think that this is a temporary issue, not a broken long-term thesis.
The Market Is Focused On One Bad Season
There is no denying that the results are weak.
Earlier this year, the company already lowered its fiscal 2026 outlook and guided for Resort Reported EBITDA of $745 million to $775 million. In Q2 fiscal 2026, Resort Reported EBITDA fell to $421.3 million from $459.7 million in the prior year, and management said snowfall in its Colorado and Utah resorts was the lowest in more than 30 years.
Now things have gotten worse.
The latest season update confirms that visitation and spending remained weak through April. That is why the stock has been pushed back toward 52-week lows.
But this is exactly how public markets often misprice great assets.
They obsess over the next quarter, or the next season, and forget to ask what the assets will earn over the next 10, 20, or 30 years.
That is where I think the opportunity lies.
These Assets Are Almost Impossible To Replace
What Vail owns is not easy to replicate.
These are some of the most iconic mountain resorts in the world. There is essentially no new supply coming to compete with them. You cannot just go and build another Vail, Breckenridge, or Park City.
That scarcity is what makes these assets so valuable.
They benefit from high barriers to entry, strong customer loyalty, brand prestige, and significant pricing power. Over time, that has translated into strong growth in profitability, even if the business occasionally goes through a weak year due to poor weather or softer discretionary spending.
This is why I am comfortable buying when short-term issues hit the stock. The temporary problems are obvious, but the long-term value of the assets remains very compelling.
